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Friday, March 07, 2025

College education levels predicted whether states went Trump or Harris

America's diploma divide: States with fewer grads went for Trump










"Data: Associated Press, U.S. Census 2023 ACS 1-year estimates; Note: Washington, D.C. has been omitted for brevity. 65.9% of residents over 25 have a bachelor's degree or higher, and Kamala Harris had a margin of +86 percentage points. Chart: Axios Visuals

One factor with a startlingly strong record of predicting whether a state voted Trump or Harris: the percentage of their population that graduated college.

Why it matters: America has split, and flipped, by education levels. Democrats have largely lost the working-class voters who elected Barack Obama, and college-educated professionals are shifting away from the Republican Party.

  • Now those with degrees overwhelmingly back Dems, and those without make up most of the red base.

By the numbers: College graduates made up 43% of the electorate, and 55% voted for Vice President Harris, per exit polls.

  • 56% of voters without degrees voted for President-elect Trump.

Zoom out: Around 37% of Americans over the age of 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher, according to Census data.

  • The states below that level are almost all reliably red, and the states above it are almost all reliably blue. 
  • And several of the states that hover right around the middle are closely watched battlegrounds.
  • Hover over the dots in the chart for more information about each state.

What to watch: As Democrats dive into what went wrong for them this cycle, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the leading progressive voice in Congress, delivered a searing review of the Party.

  • “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” he said in a statement."
College education levels predicted whether states went Trump or Harris

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