‘This Issue Is Not Going Away’: Why These Undecided Voters Are Wary of Trump

“Since August, we’ve been talking weekly with a group of young voters who are torn among Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and a write-in choice, to track their changing opinions. Most of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020 or were too young to vote. What has become clear in our conversations is that they are disappointed with the Biden administration and they want change, a strong leader, a better economy, secure borders and a powerful America in the world. And in last week’s debate, most of them loved JD Vance — until the final question. 

These undecided voters are really, really troubled by Trump’s refusal to admit he lost the 2020 election (and Vance’s refusal to say that in the debate). Many of them were horrified by the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and they are worried about the fate of American democracy in Trump’s hands. What Trump would do to American democracy is the biggest single stumbling block in voting for him for the largest share of our group.

Can Trump overcome this? Maybe with some of them; they have urgent concerns about the economy and immigration and prefer Trump on those fronts. But Tim Walz’s question to Vance at the debate — did Trump lose the 2020 election? — and Vance’s nonanswer crystallized a big reason some undecided moderate and even conservative voters would never go for Trump or didn’t feel they could trust him ever again to deal responsibly with election results or the democratic process.

“I don’t trust Kamala with our national security or with our economy. But I don’t know if I trust Trump to be a normal person for the next three months,” said Lillian, a 27-year-old Virginian who voted for Trump in 2020 but is now undecided. 

These voters suggest that Trump should be more worried than Harris right now. They’re similar to those 158,000 Republican primary voters in Pennsylvania who supported Nikki Haley over Trump in April — one month after she dropped out of the presidential race. There are voters who said “never again” about Trump after Jan. 6. Just how many of them there are, and where, could shape the outcome of the election.

Patrick Healy, Frank Luntz, and Adrian J. Rivera

Mr. Healy is the deputy Opinion editor. Mr. Luntz is a pollster. Mr. Rivera is an editorial assistant in Opinion.“