Opinion Why Black and Latino voters should stick with the Democrats
"Unusually high numbers of Black and Latino voters are considering voting Republican this fall. They are making a mistake — Democratic presidents are better for both groups.
Zoltan Hajnal, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, recently released a paper in which he examined economic outcomes for Black and Latino Americans from the 1970s through 2022. Using data from the Census Bureau, he found that median family incomes grew much more for Black and Latino Americans under Democratic presidents than Republicans. Black family income increased by about $1,000 each year a Democrat was president, compared with $335 during Republican administrations. For Latinos, it was $800 each year under Democratic leadership and $100 during Republican administrations.
The percentages of Black and Latino children living above the poverty line grew much more during Democratic administrations, as did the percentages of Black and Latino adults who were employed. Income, child poverty and unemployment gaps between Black and Latino Americans and Whites showed steeper declines when a Democrat was president. This pattern has held true in recent years, Hajnal says, with Black and Latino Americans making greater economic gains during Joe Biden’s presidency than Donald Trump’s.
And this was not a zero-sum finding. White incomes went up about the same rate under Democratic administrations ($967 per year) as under Republicans ($879).
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“If Democrats had been in power over the entire period examined in this report, much of America’s racial gaps in income and poverty may well have been erased,” Hajnal concludes.
I don’t want to pin too much on one study. Perhaps other scholars have less partisan and less stark findings. And Hajnal is not exactly sure why Black and Latino Americans have done better economically under Democratic presidents. He noted that research has shown greater overall economic growth when Democrats are in charge. So, although this is a conservative mantra, perhaps a rising tide lifted all boats.
Another potential explanation, as Hajnal nods at, is that Democrats have created policies specifically designed to reduce economic and racial inequality — and those have most likely succeeded in some ways. President Barack Obama’s signature initiative was an attempt to expand health insurance and therefore reduce out-of-pocket health-care costs, a policy that disproportionately benefited low-income Americans. Blacks and Latinos, on average, have lower incomes than Whites. The Biden administration made reducing the Black unemployment rate a major goal, and this has happened.
In contrast, the administrations of George W. Bush and Trump both pushed through tax cuts that disproportionately benefited the wealthy, a group that is heavily White.
So although I hadn’t previously seen a study showing better economic outcomes for Black and Latino Americans under Democratic presidents, the results are not surprising.
Why are Black and Latino voters shifting right, then? I don’t want to overstate this. It’s likely that close to 85 percent of Black voters and nearly 60 percent of Latinos will back Vice President Kamala Harris, much more than her expected level of White support (about 40 percent). But that’s down from about 90 percent (Black) and 65 percent (Latino) support for the Democrat in 2012 and 2016.
First, some noneconomic issues are at play. A sizable bloc of Latinos are evangelical Christians, connecting them more with the Republican Party. Many Black and Latino voters backing Trump describe themselves as conservative ideologically. They are skeptical of increased immigration, the Black Lives Matter movement and greater transgender rights. For these culturally conservative voters, backing Republicans makes sense.
Second, Black and Latino Americans probably don’t think they are making enough gains under Democratic administrations. The median figures for Black and Latino family wealth— about $27,000 and $49,000, respectively — remain significantly below that of White families ($250,000). When I talk to Black voters, I hear a lot of fatigue about the Democratic Party; essentially, “We keep voting for them and nothing really changes.” I assume many Latinos feel the same way.
Voting Republican doesn’t make sense empirically, but the U.S. political system offers only two real choices, so it’s not surprising that groups who feel left behind want to try something different.
Third, it’s not as if Democrats are overtly bragging about being the party that helps Black and Latino voters get ahead. I suspect Democrats know they are better for these groups because the party is more supportive of redistributing wealth and targeting programs to help minorities than Republicans. But stating that openly is politically fraught and might annoy White voters, who are about 70 percent of the electorate.
All that said, Democrats are going to win the clear majority of Black and Latino votes. And they should. Trump’s plans to limit federal scrutiny of local police departments and further empower Immigration and Customs Enforcement would almost certainly result in more Black and Latino Americans being abused by police and deported. Harris’s economic policies would put more money into the hands of parents, first-time home buyers and other groups that include lots of Blacks and Latinos.
It’s good that Black and Latino Americans are considering their choices and not just backing Democrats because they always have. But looking at both past and current policies, they should stick with the Democrats for now."
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