Harris Struggles to Win Over Latinos, While Trump Holds His Grip, Poll Shows
“Latino voters said they were open to Donald J. Trump’s immigration policies and hungry for change. Many remain undecided.
Presidential support among Hispanic voters
| Dem. | Rep. | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
2016 Estimates | 68% | 28% | Dem. +39 |
2020 Estimates | 62% | 36% | Dem. +26 |
2024 Times/Siena Oct. poll | 56% | 37% | Dem. +19 |
Vice President Kamala Harris’s support among Hispanic voters is in dangerously low territory for Democrats, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, while her rival, former President Donald J. Trump, has maintained his strength with the fast-growing group poised to play a key role in deciding control of the White House.
The survey of the likely Latino electorate across the country found Ms. Harris underperforming the last three Democratic candidates for the White House, and vulnerable on a slate of top issues, including the economy, immigration and crime.
Mr. Trump, who shocked Democrats four years ago with his appeal to Latinos, particularly men, has only tightened his grip — even as he closes his campaign with a sharply anti-immigrant message.
The poll found that those escalating attacks on immigrants had not driven Latino voters to Ms. Harris. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they believed Mr. Trump was not referring to people like them when he spoke about immigrants. (Half of foreign-born Hispanic voters said the same.)
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 29 to Oct. 6
Which of the following comes closer to your view when Donald Trump talks about problems with immigration?
Hispanic respondents born in the United States
I feel like he is talking about me
I do not feel like he is talking about me
Hispanic respondents born in another country
I feel like he is talking about me
I do not feel like he is talking about me
The findings highlight Latinos’ status as decisive swing voters in presidential politics. The last Democrat to fall below 60 percent with Latino voters was John Kerry, the losing nominee in 2004. Over a decade ago, roughly 70 percent of Latino voters backed President Barack Obama’s re-election. Since then, Mr. Trump has eroded that support.
Both parties have aggressively courted Hispanic voters this year, and the survey suggests that voters’ choices could still change: About one-quarter said they were undecided or persuadable — slightly higher than likely voters overall. Those undecided voters lean toward Ms. Harris.
The poll of 902 Hispanic likely voters, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, shows striking signs of support for Mr. Trump’s most aggressive immigration policies: More than one-third of Hispanic voters say they support both building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally. A vast majority of that support comes from Trump voters, but 9 percent of Harris voters also say the same. Support for such policies came largely from Latinos born in the United States.
Roughly four in 10 Hispanic voters said they did not take the former president very seriously when he spoke, with half of men saying people take his words too seriously.
Jessie Saucedo, 39, a long-haul truck driver in Houston, said he had voted for Mr. Obama but was almost certain he would vote for Mr. Trump in November. He believes, he said, that Democrats have gone too far in their “weaponization of the government” against the former president. Mr. Saucedo said he had not paid close attention to politics until Mr. Trump was in the White House.
“I have heard a lot of people say that he is racist, but I honestly don’t think he is racist,” Mr. Saucedo said. “All of the stuff was taken out of context.”
A majority of all Hispanic voters — 55 percent — said people had good reason to be offended by Mr. Trump’s comments.
The poll showed that Latino voters, like other demographic groups, are sharply divided by gender. Hispanic men are far more likely than Hispanic women to support Mr. Trump.
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 29 to Oct. 6
HISPANIC VOTERS BY Gender
HISPANIC VOTERS BY Age
HISPANIC VOTERS BY Education
The survey suggests Mr. Trump is peeling off a small but significant slice of voters who chose President Biden in 2020, with 9 percent of Biden voters surveyed saying they would cast a ballot for Mr. Trump this year. Hispanic voters who did not vote at all in 2020 were more likely than others to say they would vote for Mr. Trump.
Judith Camacho, 28, a teacher in Kirtland, N.M., who plans to vote for Mr. Trump, said that she worried some immigrants coming to the United States would cause harm and that she did not condone illegal immigration.
“I have family members that have come here illegally in the past, but I can’t say that what they did was right,” she said.
In a sign of frustration, an overwhelming majority of Hispanic voters said America’s political and economic systems needed major changes or needed to be torn down entirely. Those who say the systems need to be torn down are more likely to support Mr. Trump.
Less than a third of all Latino voters say they believe that Mr. Trump, more than Ms. Harris, cares about people like them — a lower percentage than those who plan to vote for him. Among his supporters, 80 percent said he cared about people like them, significantly lower than the 92 percent of supporters of Ms. Harris who say they believe that about her.
For many Hispanic voters, the Democratic Party remains their home, even as they indicate that it has not helped them directly. Some 57 percent say the Democratic Party understands and can fix their problems.
Less than half say the Democrats are more likely than Republicans to keep their promises. And the share who view Republicans as the party of the working class is at 35 percent, up from 27 percent two years ago.
Still, far more voters say the Republican Party is too far to the right than say the Democratic Party is too far to the left.
“The Republicans are way out of hand,” said Raymond Islas, 58, a fiction writer and high school teacher in Tucson, Ariz., who recently registered as an independent because he was dissatisfied with both major parties.
He said he planned to vote reluctantly for Ms. Harris. “They are too far to the right,” he said of Republicans, “and the rhetoric they spew out is frightening.”
The poll found that Hispanic voters maintain a fondness for the Trump administration and view the current White House with less enthusiasm. Latino voters were more likely to believe that Mr. Trump’s policies helped them than to believe that Mr. Biden’s policies were beneficial.
Among younger Latino voters, the gap is especially stark: Voters under 30 were more than twice as likely to say Mr. Trump’s policies helped them than to say the same of Mr. Biden’s.
Ricardo Sanchez, a 20-year-old security guard in Stockton, Calif., with Salvadoran and Mexican roots, said he was voting for Mr. Trump because he believed the former president put American citizens first, over sending funds abroad to aid with conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Mr. Sanchez said he knew he was out of step with many of his Gen Z friends, but he believed Mr. Trump was the candidate who could most help him achieve financial stability. He said the Democratic Party lacked common-sense policies.
“The internet has labeled Trump a racist,” Mr. Sanchez said, but he viewed the former president’s intended message as being “to take care of Americans and make us feel safe.”
Supporters of Mr. Trump are twice as likely to call crime in big cities out of control, but half of Ms. Harris’s voters say it is still a major problem, according to the survey.
Nearly three in 10 Hispanic voters say the economy is the most important issue determining their vote in November, far exceeding any other issue. Abortion was ranked the top issue by 15 percent of voters, just ahead of immigration at 10 percent.
Nichole Jaramillo, 29, who considers herself an independent, said she struggled to make ends meet working two jobs in Phoenix, one as a warehouse driver and the other as a merchandiser for a beer company.
Although she has not voted in a presidential election before, she plans to cast a ballot for Ms. Harris this year, she said, because she believes the vice president will lower taxes and help her improve her way of life and support her family.
“She is trying to build everybody up and give us all an opportunity to grow,” she said.
Camille Baker and Christine Zhang contributed reporting.
Here are the key things to know about this Times/Siena poll:
Interviewers spoke with 902 Hispanic voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, 2024, as part of a national poll of 3,385 voters.
This survey includes responses from more than three times as many Hispanic voters as in a typical national survey, using a polling technique known as an oversample. The goal of an oversample is to enable confident analysis of subgroups, such as Hispanic men or younger Hispanic voters. This method does not affect the top-level results of the final poll; in the overall poll of the nation, Hispanic respondents are weighted down so that they represent the proper share of all voters and so their views are not overrepresented in the survey results.
As part of the fielding process, The Times and Siena College relied on about 50 bilingual interviewers. Overall, nearly 20 percent of interviews among respondents who self-reported as Hispanic alone were conducted in Spanish.
Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. Overall, about 98 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.
Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region.
To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
The margin of sampling error among the Hispanic likely electorate is plus or minus 4.5 points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When the difference between two values is computed, such as a candidate’s lead in a race, the margin of error is twice as large.
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Jennifer Medina is a Los Angeles-based political reporter for The Times, focused on political attitudes and demographic change. More about Jennifer Medina
Jazmine Ulloa is a national politics reporter for The Times, covering the 2024 presidential campaign. She is based in Washington. More about Jazmine Ulloa“
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