Fears Grow over Israeli Ground Invasion as Israel Orders Residents in 25 Lebanese Villages to Flee Homes

“Lebanese Prime Minsiter Najib Mikati says Lebanon is now facing “one of the most dangerous phases of its history,” as the Israeli military claims to have begun launching “limited and targeted raids” in southern Lebanon. However, Hezbollah has denied that Israeli soldiers have actually entered Lebanon. The possible Israeli ground operation comes after two weeks of Israeli attacks on Lebanon that have killed over 1,000 people and forced over a million Lebanese to evacuate. While Biden called for a ceasefire, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Monday and affirmed U.S. support for Israeli actions along Lebanon’s border. “Israel is ultimately undermining U.S. interests in the Middle East,” says Beirut-based political and security analyst Ali Rizk. “Benjamin Netanyahu … wants to go down in history as the person who was able to successfully defeat the major enemy of Israel.”

AMY GOODMAN: Israel is claiming it’s sent ground troops into southern Lebanon, but Hezbollah and U.N. peacekeepers say the Israeli invasion has not yet begun. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati says Lebanon is now facing, quote, “one of the most dangerous phases of its history,” unquote. The Israeli military has described its actions as, quote, “limited and targeted raids” in southern Lebanon.

This all comes after two weeks of Israeli attacks on Lebanon that have killed over a thousand people, including longtime Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in a massive Israeli bombing on Friday. According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, Israeli attacks killed at least 95 people on Monday alone. Earlier today, Israel ordered residents in 25 southern Lebanese villages to leave their homes and head north.

The United States has given mixed messages on Israel’s escalating attack. This is President Biden being questioned Monday at the White House.

REPORTER: Israel may be now launching a limited operation into Lebanon. Are you aware of that? Are you comfortable with their plan?

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: I’m more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a ceasefire now.

AMY GOODMAN: While Biden called for a ceasefire, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Austin later said, quote, “I made it clear that the United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself. We agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border,” unquote.

We go now to Beirut, where we’re joined by Ali Rizk. He’s a political and security analyst based in Beirut, contributor to Responsible Statecraft and other outlets.

Thanks so much for being with us, Ali. Can you start off by talking about what you understand is happening on the border? What’s clear is Israel continues to bomb Lebanon. What isn’t clear is if it’s begun a ground invasion. What do you understand?

ALI RIZK: Well, as you mentioned, Hezbollah, the media spokesman for Hezbollah has denied those Israeli claims about Israel entering south Lebanon, entering Lebanese territory. I spoke to a Hezbollah source a few hours ago, and he also underscored that the Israelis had attempted last night but were forced to retreat in face of some immense firepower from Hezbollah. So, it does appear — you know, both sides appear to be claiming that, you know, there are different claims. Israel is saying that it has entered or it had entered Lebanese territory. That’s being denied by Hezbollah, which said it forced Israel into retreat.

But we do appear to be headed towards more and more escalation. I think that the Israelis are going to go ahead with the ground incursion or try to attempt that ground incursion. And I think that that’s why they’re using some of that increased firepower. You just mentioned in your report about how some villages were identified that they will be bombarded. I think all of this indicates where we are headed. And I believe that, you know, we do have some weeks and possible months ahead of some real dangerous escalation.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: Yes, you’ve mentioned the word “escalation,” but the reality is that the Netanyahu government appears hell-bent on continuing to expand the conflict, with all of its targeted assassinations, the bombings and now the potential for invasion in Lebanon. It’s almost as if they’ve put aside Gaza and the hostages that are in Gaza and have decided to provoke a widespread war. What’s your assessment?

ALI RIZK: Indeed. I think what you said is very accurate. You have to remember that before October 7, the Israeli government had set its sights and was focused mostly on Lebanon. In fact, many people say that because it was so focused on Lebanon, it didn’t pay enough attention to the Gaza front, and that’s what facilitated the Hamas operation on October 7.

I think that a lot of this is also related to Benjamin Netanyahu’s legacy. Benjamin Netanyahu, I think, wants to go down in history as the person who was able to successfully defeat the major enemy of Israel, the mortal enemy. You have to remember that it was Hezbollah which, many people believe, defeated Israel back in 2006. In the best-case scenario for Israel, that conflict ended in a draw. And Netanyahu’s image was also shattered by October 7. He used to be described as “Mr. Security.” That reputation was left in tatters. So I think what Netanyahu is trying to do right now is to rebuild his legacy, number one, by saying, “Look, I defeated Hezbollah. I took out the number one leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who was like Israel’s nemesis.” And number two, I think that he’s trying to repair that damage which was done to his own reputation as being “Mr. Security.”

AMY GOODMAN: I wanted to ask you about Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who spoke to reporters at the United Nations.

AYMAN SAFADI: The prime minister came here today and said that Israel is surrounded by those who want to destroy it, an enemy. We’re here, members of a Muslim Arab committee mandated by 57 Arab and Muslim countries, and I can tell you here, very unequivocally, all of us are willing to right now guarantee the security of Israel in the context of Israel ending the occupation and allowing for the emergence of a Palestinian state, independent state, along the term and preference that you all agree.

He is creating that danger because he simply does not want the two-state solution. And if he does not want the two-state solution, can you ask the Israeli officials what is their endgame, other than just wars and wars and wars? I’m telling you, all of us in the Arab world here, we want a peace in which Israel lives in peace and security, accepted, normalized with all Arab countries, in the context of ending the occupation, withdrawing from our territory, allowing for the emergence of an independent sovereign Palestinian state on June 4, 1967, lines with occupied Jerusalem as capital. That is our narrative. That is. And we will guarantee Israel’s security in that context. Can you ask Israelis what’s their narrative, other than “I’m going to continue go to war. I’m going to kill this and kill that and destroy this and that”?

The amount of damage that the Israeli government has done, 30 years of efforts to convince people that peace is possible, this Israeli government killed it. The amount of dehumanization, hatred, bitterness will take generations to navigate through.

So, ultimately, the question is — we want peace, and we’ve laid out a plan for peace. Ask any Israeli official what is their plan for peace, you’ll get nothing, because they are only thinking of the first step — “We’re going to go destroy Gaza, enflame the West Bank, destroy Lebanon” — and after that, they have no plan. We have a plan. We have no partner for peace in Israel. There is a partner for peace in the Arab world.

AMY GOODMAN: So, that’s Jordan’s foreign minister speaking Friday at the United Nations. Ali Rizk, if you can talk about his comments and also where Arab countries now stand on Israel’s bombing of Lebanon, of Syria, and continued, of course, the attacks on Gaza?

ALI RIZK: I think what we just heard is a clear example of how Israel is ultimately undermining U.S. interests in the Middle East. Here we have the foreign minister, a senior official in one of Washington’s Middle East allies, and look at these statements saying that Netanyahu is not a partner for peace, that we are ready for peace, Netanyahu is doing this, Netanyahu wants more conflict. But as long as the United States continues to provide this support, this unconditional support for Israel, that is going to further disrupt, I think, the ties the U.S. enjoys with its Middle East allies, be it Jordan, Egypt or other countries. So, I think this just goes to show how costly that situation is. And I recall David Petraeus, the famous American general, he mentioned in 2010 that our outright support for Israel is doing damage in terms of our ties with the Arab moderate allies.

Now, regarding your question about where these Arab countries stand when it comes to the Israeli escalation on the Gaza front and on the Lebanese front, look at the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Look at what he said recently. He said that normalization now is off the table. Again, that brings me back to the issue of U.S. interests. I think one of the major, major areas of focus for the Biden administration is to reach a normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. But due to Benjamin Netanyahu’s stubbornness and due to his extreme policies, he has made that virtually impossible, and hence he’s disrupting the U.S. plans for the region.

But, and what astonishes me is that the United States is continuing with this full-fledged support for the Israeli side. As you mentioned earlier on, the Biden administration said — Biden said he wanted a ceasefire, the time is for a ceasefire in Lebanon. And then we had that about-face and the Pentagon saying that we share or we support the Israeli goals when it comes to the southern Lebanese front. So, we see the United States being dragged more and more, being manipulated by Netanyahu more and more. Unfortunately, I don’t see a clear end in sight for this from now until the American elections.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And do you see the potential for Netanyahu to keep the provocations up to force, somehow or other, Iran to respond and widen this war even further?

ALI RIZK: I believe so. And I think that’s why you’re not seeing a very rash or very escalated reaction, be it from Iran or be it from Hezbollah itself. When I say “escalatory action,” I’m referring here to possible attacks on civilian areas, residential areas. I think that Netanyahu is waiting for an excuse in order to plunge the whole region into an all-out war. And I think that he believes — and I think that he’s correct in this particular estimation — that the United States is going to support him should that scenario unfold. That’s why he’s pushing for that. He knows he can count on the Biden administration to come to its aid if we have a wider conventional war in which Iran becomes involved, in which Hezbollah unleashes all of its firepower. And I believe that Iran, Hezbollah and other players are aware of this. That’s why they are being somewhat restrained and measured in the actions they’re taking.

AMY GOODMAN: Ali, if you can talk about your own family in Lebanon? How are you dealing with all of this? Can you talk about what’s happening in Beirut right now?

ALI RIZK: First of all, in the operation which took out Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, I was about 15 minutes’ walking distance away from the site of that explosion. I was here in 2006 for most of that war. But what I heard the other day is something completely different, the explosions, the sound of the explosion. I was there, by the way, with my two young daughters, who were obviously, as you can imagine, very much in a state of shock, given what took place, given that we were rather close to that location. And many people are in a state of fear in my own home. I live, fortunately, in a rather safe area, relatively, in Beirut, on the outskirts of Beirut. And I have about maybe seven or eight guests in my home who have fled the areas which were subject to bombardment.

There are many different, many other similar cases to mine, you know, people being forced to flee their homes, be it in southern Beirut or in southern Lebanon. And we’re seeing the same, the same approach, the same Israeli approach, the bombardment which led to the displacement and immense suffering of civilians. We’re seeing it repeated here at a certain scale in Lebanon, as well.

JUAN GONZÁLEZ: And also, this is not the first time that Israel has attacked Lebanon. Could you talk about the previous occupations and invasions and the impact that that has had on the Lebanese people?

ALI RIZK: Obviously, the Lebanese people have suffered a lot as a result of Israeli occupation and Israeli operations. We had the Israeli invasion of Beirut in 1982. They reached Beirut back then. They withdrew, stood in that area in the south, which was occupied until 2007, until they were forced to leave due to the operations of Hezbollah. And 2006, as I said, I remember that particularly well, immense bombardment. Back then, the Israelis destroyed the infrastructure. They started by destroying Beirut’s international airport. They destroyed bridges. They disconnected Lebanese areas from one another, deliberately, I think — not “I think” — deliberately, indeed, targeting civilians. And I think that is a strategy which we are accustomed to in Israeli conduct or in Israeli warfare, whereby they try to focus on civilians in an attempt to make the civilians lash out against the parties, like Hezbollah in the case of Lebanon or like Hamas in the case of Gaza.

But I think that, more importantly, when it comes to Lebanon, the Israelis do have some rather bitter memories. As I was telling you, in 2000, they were forced to leave. And in 2006, as I was stating in a previous answer, Hezbollah fought Israel to a standstill, and you can even say that Hezbollah actually defeated Israel. There was a commission which was established by the Israelis in the aftermath of 2006, which was called the Winograd Commission, and this commission was in order to look into the faults and the mistakes which were committed by the Israelis. And I think that is an admission that the Israelis indeed committed big mistakes and did not succeed in that particular war.

Bearing that in — or, with that in mind, we have to wait and see how Israel will fare this time around. I think that the Israelis believe that given the immense blows they have delivered to Hezbollah — and I am going to admit Hezbollah was dealt some very severe, unprecedented blows with the detonation of the pagers and the assassination of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah — I think they believe that this time it may be a bit easier to go ahead with that ground operation. But from what I’ve heard, in the late hours of last night, they did encounter some fierce resistance from Hezbollah, which prevented them from entering into Lebanese territory.

AMY GOODMAN: Ali Rizk, we want to thank you for being with us, political, security analyst based in Beirut, Lebanon, contributor with Responsible Statecraft, the online magazine of the Quincy Institute.

Next up, shipping ports from Maine to Texas shut down at midnight as 45,000 dockworkers launch their first strike in almost half a century. We’ll also hear more from Julian Assange making his first public comments after being released from the Belmarsh Prison. Stay with us.

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AMY GOODMAN: “Men Jibalina,” “From Our Mountains,” by Sima Kanaan. The song originates from the Algerian War of Independence.“