News Analysis - On North Korea, China Prefers Fence - NYTimes.com
BEIJING — In the best of times, Chinese foreign affairs scholars here say, Beijing grits its teeth while playing best friend to Kim Jong-il, North Korea’s ailing and erratic 68-year-old leader. South Korea’s charge last week that North Korea sank one of its warships, killing 46 crewmen, makes that role exponentially harder.
With Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and about 200 other American officials here for high-level security and economic talks, Chinese leaders face two unpalatable options. One is to mollify North Korea, and risk undermining its efforts to convince the United States, South Korea and Japan that China is a stabilizing force in East Asia.
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China is seeking stability in North Korea above all else. If the DPRK collapsed China would face a disastrous flood of refugees trying to cross it borders. In addition China uses the DPRK as a lever against the USA. China is able to seek concessions from the U.S. in return for its use of leverage on North Korea. China can cut the DPRK's oil supply any time it chooses. It did so for a couple of days a few years ago. I suspect that China will feign neutrality in this situation and raise its concerns in private discussions with the affected parties behind closed doors.
John H. Armwood
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