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Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.Taiwan leaders paint poll with broad strokes
By Mac William Bishop

TAIPEI - If the headlines are to be believed, Taiwan's National Assembly elections on Saturday were supposed to be a referendum on "President Chen Shui-bian's China policies", as well as on the recent visits to Beijing by two Taiwanese opposition leaders. In reality, few people in Taiwan appeared interested in the elections, and others were completely oblivious to the poll.

"There's an election tomorrow?" was the response of a 26-year-old office worker in Hsinchu City, Karyn Liu, when asked how she intended to vote. "What's it for?"

When informed about the purpose of the election - to select representatives to the National Assembly - she admitted she had no idea what that meant and added that she had no intention of taking part.

"I voted in the presidential elections last year. And I voted in the legislative elections in December," said Lee Chien-hsin, a 42-year-old restaurant manager in Taipei. "I usually vote green [for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of President Chen], but I don't see why I should bother going back to Taiwan for this." (In Taiwan, people must return to the city or town in which they maintain a household registration - generally their family's hometown - in order to vote.)

Apparently, most of the people in Taiwan shared Lee's point of view. The election on Saturday had the lowest turnout of any election in Taiwan's history - a mere 23.35% of the electorate showed up to vote, according to the figures supplied by Taiwan's Central Election Commission (CEC). In comparison, the legislative elections in December last year had a turnout of 59.16%, while the previous National Assembly elections - in 1996 - drew 76.21% of the electorate, according to the CEC.

Many analysts said the low turnout marred an otherwise solid victory for the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which walked away with 42.52% of the vote, to earn 127 seats in the 300-member National Assembly - the largest share of any of Taiwan's four main political parties.

Meanwhile, the pro-unification Chinese Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang (KMT), won 38.92% of the votes to garner 117 seats in the assembly - far less than the 130 that it predicted it could gain.

Of the two main smaller parties, the pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) and the pro-unification People First Party (PFP), the TSU made a surprising gain, achieving third place with 7.05% of the vote to earn 21 seats in the National Assembly. The PFP won 18 seats with 6.11% of the vote. Various independent candidates and alliances won the remaining 5.38% of the available ballots.

Pundits and editorialists were quick to cast the election results as a reflection of public opinion regarding the recent overtures to China made by Taiwan's two main opposition leaders, KMT chairman Lien Chan - the former vice president who was twice defeated by President Chen - and PFP chairman James Soong.

However, the National Assembly election cannot be described in simplistic "unification versus independence" terms, and in fact had little to do with cross-strait relations.

The National Assembly's purpose is to approve or deny a package of amendments to Taiwan's constitution that was passed by the Legislative Yuan in August of last year. When the amendments were passed, they had the support of all four of Taiwan's main political parties, but the TSU and the PFP later changed their positions on the amendments. Taiwan's two largest political parties - the DPP and the KMT - continue to support the amendments, although they are usually at odds over most other issues.

A perfunctory glance at the raft of amendments quickly explains the breakdown in support and opposition.

One of the key issues is the reduction of the number of seats in the Legislative Yuan from 225 to 113 - essentially getting rid of half of the country's legislators - beginning with the 2007 legislative elections. The voting system will also be simplified from its current multi-member district, single-vote system into a single-member district, two-vote system.

These two changes will increase the competitiveness of legislative elections, and therefore, it is hoped, also improve the quality of the nation's elected representatives. The changes will also deal a severe blow to Taiwan's smaller political parties, such as the TSU and the PFP, which will find it more difficult to get a meaningful number of legislators elected.

The newly elected National Assembly is also expected to approve an amendment that will abolish all future National Assemblies, which according to the constitution are required to approve constitutional amendments. In place of the National Assembly, the people will be given the right to decide on amendments through referendum, after they have been passed by the Legislative Yuan.

All of these amendments are now expected to be approved, as the DPP and the KMT together won 81.44% of the assembly vote.
Despite the rather prosaic and undramatic issues at stake, Taiwanese political leaders were quick to paint the election results with broad strokes. "The election has been a victory for democracy, for reform and for Taiwan," Chen declared on Sunday.
Other DPP officials were equally enthusiastic. "I am sure that China has heard the voice of the people of Taiwan," Vice President Annette Lu said.

The KMT, however, backed away from equating the poll to a referendum on its policies. "The support rating for the KMT was not reflected in the election results, especially since many of our supporters avoided the polls due to bad weather," KMT spokeswoman Cheng Li-wen told reporters. There was, in fact, torrential rainfall throughout much of Taiwan on the day of the election.

The PFP took a different approach and said it intends to challenge the legality of the poll through a lawsuit. "We cannot allow the constitutional reforms to be recklessly passed in a situation where 23% of the people are confused," PFP legislative caucus whip Lee Yung-ping told reporters on Sunday.

Whether or not the PFP succeeds in challenging the legitimacy of the election results, there is still at least one hurdle that the KMT and the DPP must overcome on the road to government reform: hashing out a consensus regarding the proposed statute governing the National Assembly's exercise of power.

This bill, currently deadlocked in the Legislative Yuan, is what would determine the mechanics of how the National Assembly will approve or deny constitutional amendments. The sticking point now is whether it will take a simple two-thirds or three-quarters majority in the legislature in the future to approve constitutional amendments, territorial changes or impeachment of the president and vice president.

Considering the Byzantine political minutiae that must be delved into to understand what was at stake in Saturday's election, it seemed clear to most people in Taiwan why the turnout on Saturday was so low: "I wasn't sure what I was voting for, so I just picked my party," said a college student and self-professed KMT supporter, who asked not to be named.

Mac William Bishop is a journalist based in Taipei. Comments or queries may be sent to mwbtaiwan@hotmail.com